EAST ASIA PEACE & SECURITY
INITIATIVE

Our primary mission is educating the public, policymakers, and journalists on the changing regional security architecture, as well as contributing policy analysis and commentary to inform the U.S. approach to regional affairs. In particular, we focus on PRC-Taiwan relations and the role of the U.S. in that relationship, as well as how the evolving PRC-Taiwan-U.S. dynamic can shape regional issues involving the U.S. and the PRC such as the Korean Peninsula, the East and South China Seas, and so on.

This value-free website contains two e-books and a third one is in progress. We include a number of photographs we have taken in China, Taiwan, and North Korea. The website publishes several evolving blogs about recent Northeast Asia issues, but focuses primarily on the impact on China-Taiwan-U.S. relations. Under “Cross-Strait Relations”, you will find a useful Chronology of China-Taiwan-U.S. interactions which is supported by a collection of official documents in English and Chinese. We also built country profiles of the four major actors: China, Taiwan, U.S. and Japan. In this section, we identify “Key Issues" that cover areas of cooperation and conflict between the major actors. Finally, this section offers additional resources that could be useful in any in-depth analysis of these topics. Recently we added a new section to include “Other Regional Issues” - the THAAD problem, the discussion of Tactical Nuclear Weapons on the Peninsula, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and evolving China-Taiwan-Vatican ties.

E-BOOK: STRAIT TALK

EXCERPT FROM CHAPTER 2: 

Taiwan’s current insistence on China’s democratization is not without reason. China’s communist system has shown repeatedly that it cannot cope with the succession issue. 

Strait Talk: An In-depth Analysis of China, Taiwan, US Relations

written by
COLONEL (RET.) MONTE R. BULLARD, PHD

EXCERPT FROM CHAPTER 5: 

The definition of one China became increasingly important to the point that actions perceived by China to be contrary to the one China principle have interrupted the negotiation process.

EXCERPT FROM CHAPTER 4: 

Just knowing that nearly all Chinese military actions are designed more for the political consequences than for military results will help to predict future military actions and to prevent serious miscalculations in a future conflict.

EXCERPT FROM CONCLUSION: 

Taiwan is not like Hong Kong. China could have recovered Hong Kong at any time during the past fifty years through military means, but they did not. They could also have accomplished a takeover through non-military means. They could literally have cut off Hong Kong's water. China cannot easily recover Taiwan by military means without destroying all they are trying to recover. Further, unification as a result of military means would result in a part of China that would continue to feel intimidated and oppressed as if by an alien power. It would create another area, like Tibet and Xinjiang, that would be a source of perpetual dissent and potential uprising.

E-BOOK: CHINA'S NATIONAL INTEREST

EXCERPT FROM CONCLUSION

We must deepen reform and strengthen our power to realize national interests. Attaining national interests depends on power. Without power, achieving national interests can only be a beautiful dream. For China, deepening reform is the basis for strengthening power.

An Analysis of China's National Interest

written by
YAN XUETONG

CROSS-STRAIT
RELATIONS

CROSS-STRAIT TIMELINE

OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS

MAJOR ACTORS

KEY ISSUES

One Country, Two Systems

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Reports, Articles &
Interviews

MAJOR ACTORS

BLOG POSTS

The Chinese Expansionist Threat

In general, experts tend to perceive that a rising China poses a threat to international peace and security. Some experts state the threat comes from expansionism, while others assert the threat comes from China’s easy lending to developing nations around the world, which, now, because of China’s loan policies, face potential debt crises. According to many experts, both threats pose an imminent threat to U.S. national interests. In this article, we examine the Chinese threat of expansionism, which is perceived as one of China’s strategies to attain its ultimate foreign policy goals of taking over the world. However, we disavow the mainstream narrative that Chinese expansionism poses a threat to international peace and stability. We contend that the experts’ focus on Chinese expansionism as a threat to peace and security in neighboring areas such as the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, as well as farther afield, is a red herring, because China’s overall strategy is not territorial expansion. In this series, we aim to refute these types of China threat theories in order to identify more likely Chinese international aspirations that pose a challenge to the current U.S.-led world order. China’s strategy, in fact, can be found in the advancement of legal, cultural, political, and, in particular, economic relationships, that drive China’s foreign policy goals and are clearly inimical to some U.S. national interests. These different aspirations will be examined in future blogs while this article focuses on expansion threat theory.

American Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea

American Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) policy in the South China Sea, sometimes focused on the Spratly Islands (Nansha) and Paracel Islands (Xisha) within the South China Sea, is clearly based on incomplete information. A review of official reports, like the America First National Security Strategy (AFNSS) and the Defense Department’s Annual Report to Congress 2018 on China’s Military Power, indicates that the government writers and reviewers of these documents when describing whether China is a strategic threat or a strong economic competitor almost always come to the conclusion or just assumed that China is a threat. We note that even the Harvard Belfer Center paints China as a threat as do two excellent articles in the Winter 2018 edition of the Naval War College Review.[1] We have already written one blog that offers a critique of the AFNSS. This blog is to point out weaknesses in some official and academic reports.

China's New World Order

As Xi Jinping made clear in his recent discussion with Vladimir Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum, China aims to “oppose unilateralism and trade protectionism, to create a new type of international relations.[1]” Or as China State Councilor Wang Yi put it: “China supports necessary reforms and the perfection of the current system, including the WTO, to make it fairer, more effective and more rational.[2]” These statements reflect a broader Chinese vision of ‘international accommodation,’ which would lead to a reformed multipolar international system, anchored in economic reality. A post-Western system where the world is ‘fairer’, ‘non-hegemonic’, and countries can pursue sovereignty without interference. This blog post examines China's New World Order.

Taiwan's Domestic Politics - A Potential Source of Instability

The following interview is based on an informal discussion with a former senior official in Taiwan who is concerned that there are forces within Taiwan that could lead to instability and, in collusion with the U.S., potentially a military confrontation with China. The interviewee underscores the importance of the findings of my e-book Strait Talk: An In-depth Analysis of China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations, that the optimal solution is for the next generations to find an answer to the Taiwan-China issue and it should be found by the young people on both sides of the strait.